Rada Timišvani
Tamara - Four weeks after regional elections that showed a broad rightward shift, Agausia's parties are now turning their attention to the vote that decides who governs. All 145 seats in Parliament are up on 28 November, and August 2027 the country elects a president to succeed Simon Aiovikara, who is barred constitutionally from a third term. The Social Democrats hold both the presidency and the premiership, and they enter both contests appearing to have lost the capital and no apparent heir to carry them into the next election season.
The Tamara results are still not final. Challenger Tomas Zodelava leads incumbent Mayor Matrona Matei by a few hundred votes, and the recount and Matei's litigation are before the Tamara district court, with no ruling expected before October. If the win holds, it will end Matei's ten-year hold on city hall and gives the Agausian Liberals the capital and the most prominent office outside the presidency and premiership. The Social Democrats have not named a presidential candidate and have put their primary off until after the November vote. Suffice to say the governing coalition appears to enter a pivotal election cycle weakened.
"Losing council seats in the regions is arithmetic. Losing Tamara is a headline," said one Tamara based pollster who requested anonymity. "Every Social Democratic leader for a decade has been able to point to this city hall as proof the party still knows how to win. That argument gets much harder to make now."
The Agausian Liberals had the strongest results in the governorships and mayoralties. They now hold 11 of 20 governorships, up from nine, and 20 of 51 mayoralties, up from 18, counting Tamara. They took Gonisi from the Social Democrats and Megobrisi from the Democratic League, and Aklos moved from the Progressives to the Liberals under an agreement between the two National Coalition partners, who decided the Liberals had the stronger candidate. Tave was the only governorship the Liberals lost to the Social Democrats, a surprise win.
The Social Democrats held six governorships and 14 mayoralties, one fewer than before, losing Tamara and Pativtsëmë to the Liberals and winning Mšrali Raodenost back from them. The Conservative Party of Agausia doubled its mayoralties from two to four but still holds only one governorship, even after more than doubling its regional council bloc from 17 seats to 41. The Democratic League lost its only governor and its only mayor and now holds no executive office in the country.
Parliament is elected by proportional parallel voting with a 3 percent threshold. Polling from before the regional vote had the Liberals at roughly 19 percent, the Conservatives at 17, the Social Democrats at 15, the Progressive Democrats at 14 and the New Socialists at 12. The Farmers and Green's Union stood near 5 percent and United Alliance near 4, both above the line but with little room to spare, while the Democratic League and the Communists sat right at it. The Liberals and Progressives are running together as the National Coalition. The Conservatives are running with the Rebirth and Renew Party and the Christian Democrats as the Agausia Will Return alliance, though neither of those two parties currently holds a seat in Parliament. New polling is expected in the coming weeks.
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