With less than two weeks until elections what do the polls say

Author: Izabela Albert́i  

Tamara - On 26 November Agausians will go to the polls and vote for their next parliament. All 145 members of the Agausian Parliament will be up for reelection. Despite being a nation of only 2million people ,Agausian politics, while not often exciting, are no stranger to twists and turns. Polls currently indicate that no party will win the 73 seats need for a majority. No single party has had a majority in parliament since the 1st Agausian parliament (1990-1992) where the Reformed Worker's Party won 76 seats in the 1989 elections.

Recently there have been several developments that have caused drama in the Agausian political arena. It now seems that the Socia Democratic Party, which has maintained a minority government on and off since 2006, will be forced into a coalition government with several partners. In June the United Alliance's party chair announced that his party would not support any government that they were not an official party of - a majority of United Alliance (GA) MPs have been a continuous support of the minority government in return for concessions. However, the party has seen an ideological shift back to the right and members of the opposition are likely hoping for the United Alliance's support. From its creation in 1998 until 2006 the GA was a supporter of the Agausian Liberal and its National Coalition. 

Polling now suggests that only 7of the 14 parties running for parliament will meet the new 3% electoral threshold. The Centre Party, Protection Party and the Rebirth and Renew Party are all posed to lose their representation in parliament. The Democratic league of Agausia, which was formed in November by MP candidate Irine Anidaže, appears that it will receive the 3% needed to make it into parliament. With four members declaring their intent to join the ADL it is unclear how much political sway they will have. 

If the numbers are to be believed, it is likely that Agausians will see the continuation of a left-leaning government, and with the recent reelection of President Simon Aioviḱara confidence in the government appears to be, at least, moderately strong.   

 

(Agausian Translation)   

26 Noembers Agûselebi mivlen arčevnebze da kmas mistsëmen momaval ṕarlamentsëâ. Aǵûzis ṕarlament́is 145-ve tsëvri kelakla irčevs. Miukedavad imisa, rom mkolod 2 milionâni erâ, Agûzis ṕolit́iḱa, martalâ, kširad ar aris saint́ereso, magram ûtsëko ar aris gadakvevebi. Amžamad gamoḱitkvebi ačvenebs, rom artsërti ṕart́â ver moigebs ûmravlesobistvis sač'iro 73 mandatsëâ. Artsërt ṕart́âs ar hḱolâ ṕarlamentsëâ ûmravlesoba Agûsës 1-li ṕarlament́is šemdeg (1990-1992), sadatsëâ Repormirebulma Mušata ṕart́âm 1989 tsëlis arčevnebši 76 aǵili moiṕova.

Bolo dros mokda ramdenime movlena, ramatsëâ gamoitsëvâ drama Agûsës ṕolit́iḱur asṕarezze. Akla, rogortsëâ čans, Sotsëal-Demoḱrat́i ṕart́â, romelitsëâ 2006 tsëlidan inarčunebs ûmtsëresobis mtavrobas, ižulebé gakdeba ḱólitsëuri mtavroba ramdenime ṕart́niortan ertad. Ivnisši gértânebé alânsis ṕart́ës tavmždomarem gamótsëkada, rom misi ṕart́â ar dûčers mkars artsërt mtavrobas, romlis opitsëaluri ṕart́â ar iḱo - Gértânebé Alânsis (GA) deṕut́at́ebis ûmravlesoba ûmtsëresobis mtavrobis mudmivi mkardačera iḱo datmobebis sanatsëvlod. Tumtsëâ, ṕart́âm dainaka ideologiuri tsëvlileba ûḱan maržvniv da oṕozitsës tsëvrebi savarûdod Gértânebé Alânsis mkardačeris imedi akvt. 1998 tsëlidan 2006 tsëlamde ga iḱo Agûsës Liberalis da misi Erovné Ḱólitsës mkardamčeri. 

Akla gamoḱitkvis tanakmad, ṕarlament́ši monatsële 14 ṕart́ëdan mkolod 7 gadalakavs akal 3%-ân barërs. Tsent́ris ṕart́â, datsëvis ṕart́â da aǵoržinebisa da ganaklebis ṕart́â ṕarlament́ši tsëarmomaǵenlobas daḱargavs. Agûzës demoḱrat́i liga, romelitsëâ noemberši deṕut́at́obis ḱandidat́ma Irine Anidaže čamóḱaliba, rogortsëâ čans, mëǵebs ṕarlament́ši mosakvedrad sačiro 3%-s. Otki tsëevri atsëkadebs, rom aṕirebs šeuertdes adl-s, gûrḱvevelâ, ramdenad eknebat mat ṕolit́iḱuri gavlena. 

Tu tsëprebs davužerebt, savarûdó, rom agûsëlebi ikilaven memartsëkene mtavrobis gagrželebas da ṕrezident́is Simon Aioviḱara bolo arčevit, mtavrobisadmi ndoba, sul mtsëire, zomërad žlëri čans.